Главная » 2016 » Февраль » 13 » Droughts are expected to be more frequent in some areas, especially in north-western India, Jharkhand, Orissa and Chhattisgarh.
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Droughts are expected to be more frequent in some areas, especially in north-western India, Jharkhand, Orissa and Chhattisgarh.
To better understand the risks of climate change to development, the World Bank Group commissioned the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics to look at the likely impacts of temperature increases from 2?C to 4?C in three regions. The scientists used the best available evidence and supplemented it with advanced computer simulations to arrive at likely impacts on agriculture, water resources, cities and coastal ecosystems in South Asia, South East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Some of their findings for India include:
Extreme Heat
What we know
India is already experiencing a warming climate.
What could happen
Unusual and unprecedented spells of hot weather are expected to occur far more frequently and cover much larger areas.
Under 4°C warming, the west coast and southern India are projected to shift to new, high-temperature climatic regimes with significant impacts on agriculture.
What can be done With built-up urban areas rapidly becoming “heat-islands”, urban planners will need to adopt measures to counteract this effect.
Changing Rainfall Patterns
What we know
A decline in monsoon rainfall since the 1950s has already been observed. The frequency of heavy rainfall events has also increased.
What could happen
A 2°C rise in the world’s average temperatures will make India’s summer monsoon highly unpredictable.
At 4°C warming, an extremely wet monsoon that currently has a chance of occurring only once in 100 years is projected to occur every 10 years by the end of the century.
An abrupt change in the monsoon could precipitate a major crisis, triggering more frequent droughts as well as greater flooding in large parts of India.
India’s northwest coast to the south eastern coastal region could see higher than average rainfall.
Dry years are expected to be drier and wet years wetter.
What can be done
Improvements in hydro-meteorological systems for weather forecasting and the installation of flood warning systems can help people move out of harm’s way before a weather-related disaster strikes.
Building codes will need to be enforced to ensure that homes and infrastructure are not at risk.
Droughts
What we know
Evidence indicates that parts of South Asia have become drier since the 1970s with an increase in the number of droughts.
Droughts have major consequences. In 1987 and 2002-2003, droughts affected more than half of India’s crop area and led to a huge fall in crop production.
What could happen http://girlshaifa.com/ru/
Crop yields are expected to fall significantly because of extreme heat by the 2040s.
What can be done
Investments in R&D for the development of drought-resistant crops can help reduce some of the negative impacts.
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Groundwater
What we know
More than 60% of India’s agriculture is rain-fed, making the country highly dependent on groundwater.
Even without climate change, 15% of India’s groundwater resources are overexploited.
What could happen
Although it is difficult to predict future ground water levels, falling water tables can be expected to reduce further on account of increasing demand for water from a growing population, more affluent life styles, as well as from the services sector and industry. http://girlshaifa.com/ru/ What can be done
The efficient use of ground water resources will need to be incentivized.
Glacier Melt
What we know
Glaciers in the northwestern Himalayas and in the Karakoram range - where westerly winter winds are the major source of moisture - have remained stable or even advanced.
On the other hand, most Himalayan glaciers - where a substantial part of the moisture is supplied by the summer monsoon - have been retreating over the past century.
What could happen http://girlshaifa.com/ru/ At 2.5°C warming, melting glaciers and the loss of snow cover over the Himalayas are expected to threaten the stability and reliability of northern India’s primarily glacier-fed rivers, particularly the Indus and the Brahmaputra. The Ganges will be less dependent on melt water due to high annual rainfall downstream during the monsoon season.
The Indus and Brahmaputra are expected to see increased flows in spring when the snows melt, with flows reducing subsequently in late spring and summer.
Alterations in the flows of the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra rivers could significantly impact irrigation, affecting the amount of food that can be produced in their basins as well as the livelihoods of millions of people (209 million in the Indus basin, 478 million in the Ganges basin, and 62 million in the Brahmaputra basin in the year 2005).
What can be done
Major investments in water storage capacity would be needed to benefit from increased river flows in spring and compensate for lower flows later on.
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